Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside and current rally continues to 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as having a corrective structure. Hence, we’ll start to be cautious on loss of momentum above 1.3575 and topping around 61.8% retracement at 1.3838. Though, break of 1.3263 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, further rally is in favor even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg should have completed at 1.2460. Current rebound from there could extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838 and above. We’re not expecting resumption of long term up trend yet and the corrective price actions would extend below 1.4689 first.
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Choppy rise from 0.7144 should have completed at 0.7777. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7441 support first. Sustained break there would turn outlook bearish for 0.7144 support. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7833 to limit upside and finally bring reversal.
In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7833 at 0.6178 next. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will now be a strong sign of medium term reversal.
EUR/USD’s decline continues today and reaches as low as 1.0772 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall from 1.1615 should target 1.0517 low next On the upside, above 1.0922 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. Overall, EUR/USD is staying in consolidation pattern from 1.0461, below 1.1713 and is still extending.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern with fall from 1.3993 as the third leg. Price actions from 1.0461 are viewed as consolidation pattern to fall from 1.3993. Break of 1.0461 will extend the decline from 1.3993. On the upside, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to indicate trend reversal. Otherwise, we’ll stay bearish and expect a new low below 1.0461 at a later stage.
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside as the choppy rise from 1.1946 is still in progress. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3444 (50% retracement of 1.5016 to 1.1946 at 1.3481) to limit upside. Meanwhile, below 1.2352 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1946 low.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 2005 high of 2.1161 met 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 already. Oversold condition in both weekly and monthly RSI suggests a bounce is due. However, there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. And sustained trading below 1.2457 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9548 continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.9998 resistance. Still, price actions from 0.9443 are viewed as a consolidation pattern and fall from 1.0327 is not finished. Hence, we don’t expect a strong break of 0.9998 but a rejection from there. Below 0.9831 minor support will turn bias neutral first. However, sustained trading above 0.9998 will confirm near term reversal and turn focus back to 1.0327 high.
In the bigger picture, no change in the view that choppy fall from 1.0327 is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it’s still in progress. Break of 0.9548 support should confirm and target 0.9443 and below. We’d expect strong support from 0.9072 to contain downside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9998 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bullish for a test on 1.0327 high.
USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 107.58 so far. 107.48 resistance is already met and there is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 123.74 to 98.97 at 108.43. At this point, we’re still expecting strong resistance from there to limit upside. Below 106.02 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 105.00). However, sustained break of 108.43 will argue that the trend is possibly reversing and would bring stronger rise to 50% retracement at 111.35 first.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 98.97. Price actions from there are developing into a corrective pattern. But at this point, we’re expecting at least another fall to 61.8% retracement of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 at 94.77 before the trend reverses. However, sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 108.24) will argue that the trend has reversed earlier than we thought and will turn outlook bullish.