Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside. Current fall from 0.9304 is still in progress for 0.8332 key support. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there, at least for the first attempt, for a rebound. On the upside, above 0.8689 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But break of 0.8856 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the correction from 0.9304. Otherwise, another fall remains in favor.
In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, and the depth of the decline, 0.9304 is now seen as a medium term top. Price actions from there would develope into a corrective pattern. Initial support should be seen around 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8399. But there is prospect of extending to 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8164). The corrective pattern would take some time to complete before up trend resumes at a later stage.
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Overall, the corrective fall from 1.6587 is not completed yet. Below 1.4072 will target next key level at 1.3671. We’d expect loss of downside momentum ahead and bottoming above 1.3671. On the upside, break of 1.4880 resistance should be a strong sign of reversal and will turn outlook bullish for 1.5094 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should be in progress and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting 1.6587 resistance first.
With 130.23 minor support intact, further rise is still expected in GBP/JPY. As noted before, bullish convergence condition in daily MACD raises the chance of trend reversal and focus will be on 138.81. On the downside, break of 130.23 support, however, will argue that the down trend is still in progress and will turn bias back to the downside for 122.36 low.
In the bigger picture, fall from 195.86 (2015 high) top has met 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71 already. There is increasing chance of medium term bottoming at 112.36. Break of 138.81 would turn GBP/JPY into corrective phase and bring rebound to 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.43 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 122.36 will extend the down trend to 116.83 (2011 low).
At this point, further rise is still expected in EUR/JPY for 118.45 resistance and above. As price actions from 109.20 are seen as a consolidative pattern, we’d expect strong resistance from longer term fibonacci level at 121.36 to limit upside. Meanwhile, below 114.96 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and extend recent consolidation from 109.20.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 109.20 and rebound from there would extend. However, momentum isn’t convincing enough for trend reversal yet. Hence, in case of stronger rise, we’d be expecting strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 141.04 to 109.20 at 121.36 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 112.06 support will likely extend the down trend from 149.76 to 76.4% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 107.24.