EUR/USD recovered to 1.0684 earlier today but quickly reversed. As it’s staying above 1.0518 temporary bottom, intraday bias stays neutral for consolidations. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.1298 to 1.0518 at 1.0816 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0518 will extend the decline from 1.1615 to 1.0461/0517 key support zone. We’re slightly favoring the case that consolidation pattern from 1.0461 is completed and larger down trend is resuming. Decisive break of 1.0461 will confirm this bearish case.
In the bigger picture, the medium term consolidation pattern from 1.0461 could have completed as a triangle at 1.1298. Decisive break of 1.0461 will confirm resumption of long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). In such case, next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.